Recency Bias

Everyone: chill out.

We’ve seen a rather unusual start to the season. Leicester City are top of the Premier League (Arsenal are currently 11th, Manchester United 14th), Sassuolo are second in Serie A, and Real Sociedad lead La Liga (with Barcelona 8th). Traditionally elite teams look vulnerable and it feels like anybody can win on a given day. However, do we genuinely feel like Real Sociedad and Sassuolo can become kings of their countries?

Why Does Everyone Need to Chill Out?

I’m not sure if this is a result of 2020 being weird and altering people’s perspectives, but I’ve noticed a trend this year where fans (including myself) seem to react to immediate results without keeping a full season in mind. On a personal level, Everton beat Spurs on the opening weekend of this season and people claimed Spurs no longer belonged in the top 6. Spurs have finished in the top 6 every year since 2010 while Everton haven’t made the top 6 since 2015. The following 8 games have also shown just how absurd of a take that was, especially given Spurs haven’t lost in the Premier League since. Spurs are also in second place, and people are also getting very excited about that. Tottenham haven’t won the league since 1961 and they played a very easy schedule to begin the season. It’s fun to get excited at the concept of winning the league, but let’s not even CONSIDER getting excited about that until we’re at least halfway done with the season.

Ferran Torres scored a hat trick against Germany this week and people are acting like he’s the best damn player in the world. I have no reason to hate on him and certainly am not questioning his talent. He could become a world-class player, or he could completely bust, and the hat trick this week could be the peak of his career. However, it’s likely that he’ll fall somewhere in between. Instead of these extreme takes after a single game, let’s all relax a bit and let a bigger sample size of performances speak to his skill.

Liverpool is currently decimated with injuries, but do we not remember how fantastic they were last season?? They had the Premier League locked up by December. Even with their injuries, they have one of the world’s best managers, valuable and successful experience, and still have a lethal and healthy attack. Even with these injuries, they’re still only a point out of first place. They have very little to play for compared to previous seasons, but they’re still a top team in the world.

Leicester City currently leads the league, and people are questioning if it’ll be a repeat of 2015-2016. Are we really forgetting their monumental collapse last season? They had a double-digit point lead over 5th place halfway through the season and they failed to finish in the top 4 and qualify for the Champions League. By contrast, Manchester United were nowhere near Leicester in December/January and ended up finishing above them by the end of the season. United are currently in 14th and could very easily turn that around and finish above Leicester again (there’s only an 8-point gap between them).

Finally, the hype for the USMNT has been momentous after the last slate of international games. It’s exciting to have an American squad full of players representing some of the world’s best clubs, but we have a long way to go before we’re truly ready to compete with European and South American countries. Our team is incredibly young, but if you compare our roster to that of England, France, Brazil, Germany, etc., we are nowhere near that caliber. I’ve always thought the USA pulls above their weight (other than 2018 WC qualifying lol), but there are levels to this, and we aren’t even close to at the level of a team competing to win a World Cup.

I could go on and on about the various ways we’re letting our recency bias affect our perspective of world football. The point is, it was easy to mention multiple instances where fans (again, I’m guilty of this too) react to recent performances rather than looking at the big picture. We all love a fairytale team or story, and we all love the idea of a nobody emerging from the shadows to become an elite player. However, let’s all taper our expectations a bit. Most leagues have only played ¼ of their seasons - we have a long way to go before we get genuine clarity on who’s a fraud and who’s legit. Sorry to be a buzzkill, but we can all do a better job enjoying the moment and letting a larger sample size dictate our opinions.

Author: Living in Southern California, Robert Sweeney has been a fan of soccer since he played as a young child. Since then, he’s become a diehard Tottenham and US National Team fan. Rob enjoys writing about the impact soccer has had on his life in hopes that it betters others as well. Twitter: @robsweeney11