It is almost Christmas. It’s getting cold. It’s getting dark early. The Champion’s League group stages are finished, and all four English Premier Leagues qualified for the knock-out round. The winter breaks are coming, and Dippy the Pirate Bear is about to finish another year of probation. On Thursday, in the midst of holiday preparations, citizens of the United Kingdom went to the polls to vote in a hastily arranged and unpopular general election. This election was to determine the future of their country’s relationship with the European Union (known as Brexit). If the Conservative Party were to be declared the winner, the current Prime Minister, Boris Johnson will proceed with his plan for the first stage of Brexit. This would mean that the UK could break up with the EU by the end of January 2020. If the Labour Party were to be declared the winner, it is likely that Brexit would be delayed, and another public referendum would take place. If the UK were to divorce the EU economic block, then there must be a brand-new trade agreement between the two entities to be agreed upon by the end of 2020. This would make for a difficult process as Britain would be coming to the negotiating table as outsiders rather than partners. A new trade agreement potentially affects one major aspect of English football. In the current paradigm, all countries in the EU have made it remarkably easy to move from one-member country to another for work purposes. So, transfers into and out of the UK to other footballing countries in the economic block is free from the “usual complications” of immigration and work permits. Under a new agreement forced by Brexit, it may be more difficult for transfers to occur between English teams and the European Union countries. This may stem the flow of foreign talent into the EPL, but also keep English players in the league. This could take effect as early as the summer transfer window of 2020. I am writing this literally as the exit polls have reported in the UK a possible landslide by the Conservative Party.
Note: In the early morning on Friday, December 13th, in the UK, news outlets announced that the Conservative Party had won an overwhelming majority in Parliament with all but one seat being called. The election results are historic in that seats in the industrial north of England swung from Labour over to the Tories for, in many cases, the first time in decades. The victory by the Conservatives provides Boris Johnson the mandate to push forward with the first phase of the Brexit plan in January. The completion of the first phase starts the process of the second phase which would be the expected tense negotiation with the EU to create a new trade agreement.
Given the uncertainty all over England politically and with the holidays being interrupted with such serious decision making, it is of no surprise that football is a great distraction now more than ever. Sadly, all the EPL teams are dumpster fires of one form or another. Some are just smoldering like after a summer cook-out and some are rolling down a hill full of bio-medical waste and tires. It is a good time to look at my power rankings of the top ten Premier League teams as we head hurdling like a sleigh driven by drunk reindeer into the holiday office party.
Honorable Mention: Everton
Yes, the other Liverpool team. They spent loads and loads of cash hoping for a European slot during the summer transfer season only to see their manager sacked as the dominos of them started falling starting with Mauricio Pochettino in London. Though they are 14th in the table there are several promising signs that suggest that they are not as bad as it seems. The Blues are seventh in expected points (xPTS) and tenth in expected goal differential per ninety minutes (xGDiff/90 min). They are also 18th in the EPL in converting goal chances into goals. This suggests that they have gotten opportunities but have failed consistently to convert. If they start playing more clinical on offense, then a run up the table is possible.
Dumpster Fire Level: Bottom of the hill burning with bio-hazard medical waste and old Playboys.
10. Arsenal
Many people are going to groan at this as the Gunners have been miserable to watch all year. They have failed so much and so often to meet expectations that their manager got sacked in the domino effect of the Pochettino sacking. It was clear that Emery had to go as this team looked leaderless and lost. Worse than that was the fact that their fans turned on the coach and started actively rooting against the team to just so he would get fired. To make matters worse, their ex-captain (voted by the players for some odd reason), Granit Xhaka decided to turn rogue against his manager, the team, and the fans at home by acting like a spoiled prima donna because he did not like being taken out of a match. Sadly, I suspected that the season was headed in the wrong direction when before their first game their estranged German star, Mesut Ozil had to escape with his family from a racially motivated car-jacking while one his teammates stayed behind to ward off knife-wielding motorcycle gang thugs. The next day, both players were out of the line-up so they can protect their families. When this is the start of your season, things are sure to not go very well. Arsenal are still hopelessly pedestrian despite the coaching change sitting ninth in the table, eleventh in xPTS and in xGDiff/90 min (both in the negative). Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang continues to be the sole bright spot with a non-penalty expected goals plus assists per ninety minutes (npxG+xA/90) of 0.57. Both very recently sacked managers Pochettino and Carlo Ancelotti have been rumored to be the Gunners next manager, which will be an improvement on what they had.
Dumpster Fire Level: Still rolling down the hill burning with bio-hazard waste and unmet expectations.
9. Burnley
After a slightly promising start, they have lost six of their last eight. During that span they have either beat their opponents by at least two goals or lost by at least two goals. They have come back to the bitter reality that everyone expected at the start of the season. Their xGDiff/90 min is currently seventh and xPTS is right now tenth in the league. So, it is possible that with better finishing play they could turn it around. They have Newcastle, Bournemouth, and Everton next on their fixture list, which are all winnable matches. Chris Wood is a solid offensive player (npxG+xA/90 of 0.56) with six goals.
Dumpster Fire Level: Falling down a cliff with burning tires and three hundred-year-old perfume.
8. Sheffield United
It is suspected that their wayward bratty Disney character run is ending as they have exceeded expectations all season. The loss at home to Newcastle really showed who this team really is. Even though they were able to pass the ball on average 60 times in their opponent’s half before the visitors made a defense play, United was only able to generate an xG of 1.09. Their xG in their win against Norwich last weekend was a lackluster 0.71. These numbers are unsettling especially in light of their weak opponents. Sheffield’s next three matches against Aston Villa, Brighton, and Watford does provide an opportunity to change the downward trajectory of the season. However, their line-up on offense does not strike much fear in league defenses as there are no natural goal scorers to finish off the meager chances they produce.
Dumpster Fire Level: Cinderella’s clothes, shoes, and tiara in a raging pile of flames in a dumpster rolling down a curved side street.
7. Tottenham
It is hard to figure out Spurs right now as they are in the honeymoon phase of the José Mourinho era. It has been cute watching the Special One wearing that beautiful purple lavender tracksuit on the training pitch and news conferences. He’s been a virtual Baby Yoda with ball boys and players since he rolled into his second big London team. I am highly skeptical (along with everyone else who is not a Tottenham fan) that this fun fest will continue. With José, the honeymoon always ends and when it ends it’s so horrific that the fire department needs to come to put out the burning bed and dumpster while the police question the witnesses while making a chalk outline. Spurs play Wolves, Chelsea, Brighton, Norwich, and Southampton between now and New Year’s Day. This will be a grueling test for the beautiful honeymoon for the new couple. They are also third best in the league in converting goals from the chances they receive, which suggests that if they return to the mean that their current run of positive results will not continue. They will be fun to watch with the nucleus of very good players along with a new manager trying to prove that he is more hip than he actually is.
Dumpster Fire Level: Burning with the remains of 10,000 Champions League Champions t-shirts.
6. Wolverhampton
A rough start to the season while they were trying to figure how to juggle European competition caused many people to forget this up and coming team. Quietly, they are now on an eleven match undefeated streak in the Premier League. Their expected goals against (xGA) in the last seven league matches is 0.9, 0.6, 1.0, 0.5, 0.6, 1.0, and 0.8. The Wolves are not exactly the most fun team to watch unless you like to watch teams choke off their opponent’s ability to create goal opportunities. Admittedly, their run in the league has been against low level opponents, but in this league this streak is rather impressive. Nuno Espirito Santo’s squad gets Tottenham next, which should be interesting as they will be pitted against a manager who knows exactly how to play their own style. By the way, Santo has the best beard in the Premier League.
Dumpster Fire Level: Smoldering and quiet near the Portuguese embassy.
5. Manchester United
Creepy Cousin Ole continues to survive at his post. I expect that he will remain at his job at least until the end of the season. It seems that there is a long term plan in place, which includes Ole building up youth players (like in the good ole’ days at Carrington) until the next manager comes to take the team to the next level. Though any plan involving the German prison guard, Ed Woodward, has to be met with sarcastic laughter and screaming fits. I have complained in the past that Ole was legally insane in his tactics by using the same strategy repeatedly regardless of who United’s opponents are. His plan against Manchester City was the only plan that could have worked. United can not play a possession game where they keep the ball 60% or more of the time trying to break down bunkered in opponents. They lack the talent and imagination on the pitch (especially in the mid-field) to make much of a dent against defensively astute teams. United’s xGA at City was their worst of the season. That did not matter. Man City had over 500 more completed passes in the match. That did not matter either. In fact, it played right into United’s plan. It is important to also consider that Manchester United is fifth in the PL in xGDiff/90 min, fourth in xPTS, and fourth worst in converting goal chances. If United get better at converting their chances with Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial on the pitch at the same time, then a run to the top four is possible. Meanwhile, Paul Pogba has been on a milk box wearing a green eco-friendly Real Madrid shirt in some random warm country and United is better as a team without him.
On another note, Pochettino will not be coaching this team next season or any season. I am betting my freezer and broken Powerbeats on it.
Dumpster Fire Level: Smoldering tires, needles, sour grapes, and DVDs of the 2012-13 season.
4. Chelsea
I am so biased from the old Jose Mourinho days against the Blues. I need to add that as a qualifier. Their transfer ban caused them to play their ample supply of talented youth players with a club legend coaching them all the way. The result? The Pensioners are third in the Premier League in expected points (xPTS) and fourth in xGDiff/90 mins. They have three players with a npxG+xA/90 mins over 0.45 (Tammy Abraham, Christian Pulisic, and Willian) who have played over 1,000 minutes. Their transfer ban was reduced by half making them able to spend next month. One had to chuckle that the defense on their appeal of the transfer ban was the “What about them?” defense as they were pointing the finger at Manchester City regarding their youth practices. Chelsea is fun to watch and they are quickly becoming an exciting force. However, how can anyone root for a team whose owner can not get a visa into the UK due to his connection to Vladimir Putin and the murder of former spies on English soil? Sorry, I will stop.
Dumpster Fire Level: Burning flowers, Russian eggs, and denied visa applications.
3. Leicester City
I know. They are clearly in second place in the PL table. The Foxes are only eight points behind Liverpool. Yet, looking at numbers I am not convinced that they are the second-best team. They are third in the PL in xGDiff/90 mins. They are fifth in the league in xPTS (below even Manchester United). What has driven Leicester towards the top of the table is the fact that they are the best in the Premier League in converting goal chances. Despite how great Jamie Vardy and James Maddison are as offensive players, I expect the Foxes to start playing closer to the mean. Their winning streak (now 8 league matches) will likely come to an end as they have Manchester City and Liverpool back to back within the next two weeks. We will see.
Dumpster Fire Level: Smoldering. Ready to burst if someone accidently drops a cigarette nearby.
2. Manchester City
I am not sure what else needs to be said about City that has not already been said. Their current form is awful in comparison to their recent standards. The tactical plan against them is as well-known as the plans for blowing up the Death Star because their defense is slow and reckless especially against a counter attack along the wings by teams that have pace. It is likely that in year four of the Pep Guardiola era that the dressing room is tired of listening to his incessant ranting. I suspect that even Pep is tired of hearing his own voice bouncing off the walls as evidenced by his recent allergy to beard trimmers. City, on paper, is the most talented team in the league top to bottom. There is no question about this. When they are at their best then they are one of the top two teams in Europe. The problem is now there is a combination of atrophy, attrition (injuries to Laporte, Aguero, Sane etc.), mental black outs, and physical fatigue that has infected the dressing room. Manchester City remains on top of the league in xGDiff/90 min and xPTS. They are also 16th in the league in converting goal chances which is the indicator of the mental black outs that are suffering from.
By the way, Pep is signed up through next season, but he has a clause in his contract that he can walk after this season. Mauricio Pochettino will be coaching Manchester City in 2020.
Dumpster Fire Level: Full of toxic waste, oil barrels, tires, sweaters, and broken dreams.
1. Liverpool
This is for real. I am finally saying it. I tried to deny it and wish it away but doing that became a serious evasion of reality bordering on paralyzing psychosis. One could argue that their score lines aren’t dominant, and they have gotten lucky with VAR, but that is covering up the very real fact that right now they are the best team in the EPL and in Europe. Currently, the Reds are ahead of Leicester by eight points and Manchester City by 14 points in the league table. They are undefeated in all sixteen league matches this season. The only blemish is a draw at Old Trafford. Liverpool has escaped major injury and they are also the most physically fit team in Europe. Jurgen Klopp is, by far, the best manager in the world right now. There is absolutely no argument here. His emotional intelligence, tactical acumen, and man management skills are all at the top of the game. He is also coaching four players that ended up in the top 10 of the Ballon d’Or voting this year. The Reds have the best defensive backfield in Europe along with three players in front and mid-field (depending on the match strategy) that have a npxG+xA/90 minutes above 0.61 (Sadio Mané, Mohamed Salah, and Roberto Firmino). On Boxing Day, they travel to Leicester. A victory there may end their league trophy drought. My only concern for this team is their fans. They have taken on the same mentality of the baseball team that the team owners oversee in Boston. It seems given all the years without a league trophy and epic collapses has caused them to have a group neurosis that could be so infectious at Anfield that the team starts tightening up in the moment. This could evolve into a vicious cycle of neurosis and suddenly things are slipping out of their hands like Dippy handling a decent paycheck from an employer that actually as a tax ID number.
Dumpster Fire Level: There is no fire. A hooded gentleman with an unkempt beard is hovering with a lighter. He turns to the CCTV and we see his burning blue eyes.
Author: Keith Lisenbee, mental health professional, writer, and soccer enthusiast is from Atlanta, Georgia by way of Virginia. I was in love with soccer until Agüero destroyed my soul and Manchester United's title hopes in 2012. I came back for the World Cup in 2014 and through the use of DVR, I am back with the force of orange Tic Tacs and IPAs covering the EPL, Bundesliga, MLS, and La Liga. You can follow me on Twitter @keith_lisenbee and Instagram @lisenbeekeith got more random soccer thoughts.