If you take a quick tour of the five major European leagues you will see a clear delineation between the top two teams and the rest of the division. All but one. The gap between the top two teams in the English Premier League is six points. The gap in the EPL between the top nine teams is thirteen points. In Ligue 1, the gap between the top two is five points with a gap of ten within the top nine. In La Liga and Serie A, the gap between first and second is one point with the gap within the top nine in each league is six and 11 points respectively.
The outlier is the Bundesliga.
After eight match days, the top two clubs in Germany are tied. The gap between ninth and first in the table is just two points. At any given moment in the coming weeks any one of these clubs could be at the top or in ninth. The big question besides Dippy’s next court date for soliciting is whether the table will stay this congested at the top. Looking closer at each club may elicit some possibilities. Henceforth, I present my Dippy the Pirate Bear NSFW Power Ranking of the top nine teams in the Bundesliga. Please sit down and put down the cheese sticks, “massagers”, and curling irons.
Honorable Mention:
Werder Bremen
Werder Breman is 12th in the table currently. After being beaten badly by a battery acid energy drink company team (you all know they are), they have drawn against Dortmund, Frankfurt, and Berlin. Somehow, the fact that they gutted out draws which should be been losses is testament to their ability to clinically finish the chances they do get. Their xG (expected goals) in those draws was 0.98, 1.7, and 0.97. Their xG for the season is 11.76 goals and have 13 total goals. The other key indicator is that they are sixth in the league in xGDiff (expected goal differential) at +2.6 with their actual goal difference of -4. Their best players, Niclas Fulkrug, Yuya Osako, Josh Sargent, and Milot Rashica are all serviceable offensive players. This team could be a top nine team by maintaining their ability to convert their chances and maybe getting a few more along the way.
9Th – Freiburg
Freiburg is the little club that somehow despite everything going against them still fight and scrap their way to not just stay in the top flight, but to be competitive. Like many German clubs they have an extremely strong connection to their supporters and their city. They had an unlucky loss to Union Berlin (another fun team to watch especially if you are into carpentry, democratic socialism, and beer with yeast floating in it) over the weekend, but came back to draw Dortmund, and beat Duesseldorf. They have punched, as usual, above their weight class. Their xGDiff is only +0.6 goals but hold a goal differential of +6. Despite getting limited good chances they convert them. The key stat for them is they are fifth in the league xGA (expected goals against). Their defense can wall up like a desperate chihuahua when they need it. Luca Waldschmidt (xG = 2.2), Nils Petersen (xG = 2.1), and Lucas Holer (xG = 1.6) are solid offensive players. They play the battery acid energy drink company club next which will be another test, but do not be surprised if they get a result.
8th – Schalke
Ok, full disclosure. I am a supporter of Borussia Dortmund and Schalke is their biggest and most bitter rival. This rivalry has been so bad that in one derby between the two attack dogs ended up attacking players – on the pitch. I promised Dippy that I would be objective, so for integrity sake I will try. First, I will do a shot of Jager and chug a box of orange Tic Tacs.
Schalke had a horrible loss last weekend. Subjectively, they appeared to dominate the match against Hoffenheim. They only allowed Hoffenheim 6.06 average passes in the own zone before their defensive action (PPDA). They had fourteen passes completed within 20 yards of the opposition goal excluding crossing attempts (Hoffenheim had one). They pressed, held the ball well, passed deep, but they could not convert. Their xG was 0.86 and had one shot on target. Hoffenheim had two goals on the counter. Game over. This should be of no surprise. Had Schalke won they would have been one point ahead in the table. They as allergic to the top slot in the league as I am allergic to Sprite. Nonetheless, after a clumpy cat litter box season last year, this traditional top side is back near the top. Their defense is one of the best in the league as they do not give up many quality chances. Their xGA is third in the Bundesliga. Next weekend they host Dortmund and you throw all the numbers, table positions, and cat litter out the window. Just please, no dogs on the pitch.
7th – Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer suffered a horrific loss away to Frankfurt. They had several opportunities that they squandered like Dippy squanders milk money. When I see Bayer I see a team that I never can figure out what I’m going to get. They are a better than average team, but they show indications that they can be much better than they are. However, there are times where they fail to meet expectations. You never know what you will get. Frankfurt was a beatable team; however, Bayer did not show up for the start of the match and they got rolled like a Jeep down a cliff before they woke up but by that time it was way too late. Two weeks previously they hung tough against the battery acid energy drink company club and got a draw out of it. This result came after competent results against two below par opponents. Their xG is 12.17 and they have 12 actual goals which is 6th in the Bundesliga. They are able take advantage of the true chances they receive.
6th – Eintracht Frankfurt
Everyone wondered how this club would respond when all their strikers got sold off to the various other evil empire clubs of the world. What few people knew was that they had players in the woodwork to slot in their place. They sit in eighth in the table, but their xG (14.6) is fifth in the league. Their xGA (11.2) is seventh. There is very little difference between their expected goals scored and against and what has occurred on the pitch (1.8). After a bad loss at Augsburg, they drew against Dortmund (sorry, everyone draws against them), beat Union Berlin, drew Bremen, and then slaughtered Bayer. Goncalo Paciencia, Andre Silva, and Bas Dost all have xGs over .6 per 90 minutes making them wonderful fantasy buys. However, their expected goal differential (xGDiff) is very low and is 9th in the Bundesliga. They are also playing in the Clumpy Cat Litter Box Cup tournament, which may prove a distraction as they are hoping to reach the top four. They are away at the other Borussia (Monchengladbach) this coming weekend, which will be a test of their credentials. I would not be surprised if Frankfurt continues to stalk the top 4 like Dippy at a wine shop.
5th – Wolfsburg
Wolfburg is the only Bundesliga club to not lose a match so far this season. They have four wins and four draws. They have drawn those four times in their last six matches. They have only posted six goals in that stretch, but only gave up four. A Wout Weghorst goal in the 81st minute gave them a draw in a tough match against the Battery Acid Energy Drink Company Club. This after drawing four yellow cards in the first half. They have given up the lowest amount of goals in the league and have the lowest xGA in the league, so it is no anomaly. This gives them the ability, if this holds, to gets wins instead of draws and draws instead of losses. Weghorst is their talisman with a npxG+xA (non-penalty kick expected goals plus assists) of 0.56 per 90 minutes and certainly the club’s goal is getting him the ball via Josip Brekalo (xA of 1.4) and Maximilian Arnold (xA of 2.1). Wolfsburg is tied for top of the table. If their defense stays solid, they will steal points and hang around the top for a while – if they score.
4th – Battery Acid Energy Drink Company Club (RB Leipzig)
If you like tax loopholes, battery acid, corporate lawyers, plastic in the ocean, and dog shit in a bag on fire, then RB Leipzig is the German team for you. I refuse to call them a true club in the German football sense because their “members” are all Red Bull executives. They are not a club; they are a mafia family. They should be forced to play in England or China. Their uniforms are awful. Their stadium is awful. Their drink is awful.
Ok, enough (for now).
Let’s face it. Timo Warner is the second-best player in the Bundesliga. Too bad he plays for a corrupt “club.” His npxG+xA per 90 minutes is 1.04. This is the highest in the league of players with more than four appearances. Robert Lewandowski at Bayern sits at .92 on this metric. Werner is 2nd in the Bundesliga in goals, xG, npxG (non penalty kick expected goals), and xA. No wonder rumors swirled like Dippy’s dump in the porcelain god on Taco Tuesday that Werner was possibly headed to Bayern. If that were to occur, then expect a random locust attack, zombies flying UFOs, and Dippy being President because that will end German football for the next 100 years. The team is fourth in the table, xGDiff and in xG, but eighth in xGA. As long is Werner stays healthy and in Leipzig, the Battery Acid Energy Drink Company Club will likely remain a title challenger, but only a challenger.
3rd – Borussia Dortmund
I watched last weekend’s match in an Irish bar in metro Atlanta with Sean Bradley, the charismatic “boss” of the official Atlanta Borussia Dortmund Fan Club. We were the only ones present as the Atlanta United play-off match was being played virtually simultaneously with the Dortmund match. We were also surrounded like Stalingrad by Wisconsin football supporters. Yes, Wisconsin. As we are both supporters of both clubs (typical football polygamy, just read ‘Soccernomics’) we wanted to watch both matches as they were being played out. The problem was that it was just the two of us and we were surrounded by 632 Wisconsin fans and just like in Stalingrad they had control of all the TVs. So, since it is 2019, we watch the United match on our phones. Take note, we chose to watch on the only TV available to us the Dortmund match over a single elimination play-off game involving our home team. Such is being a fan of Borussia Dortmund.
Arguably, this was the best match they played all year. Here’s why.
Due to bad luck, sloppiness, strange decision manager and player decision making, and solar flares, Dortmund drew their last three Bundesliga matches. Dortmund conceded goals while ahead 2-1 in the 54th, 87th, and 88th minutes. Questions abounded regarding the club’s “mentality” which irked pretty much everyone dressed like a bee. Marco Reus, their captain, dropped multiple s-bombs when asked about it. They were playing against Borussia Mochengladbach (BMG) who was sitting at the top of the table. Jadon Sancho was ruled out of the match for coming back late from the international break. Paco Alcacer was out injured and Mario Gotze out due to illness. In the match, Dortmund had two goals overturned upon video review. BMG had four chances on goal from inside the penalty area, Dortmund had zero. In the 73rd minute, Dortmund’s goalie, Roman Burki left the match with an injury and was replaced by Marwin Hitz who was a star on the club’s wasteful Amazon doc by performing miserably the last time he was subbed in.
The result?
Marco Reus scored the only goal in the 57th minute and Dortmund held on to win 1-0.
Despite all the obstacles and things that went wrong, Dortmund found a way to take the lead, keep the lead, and held on. From a “mentality” standpoint it was their best match of the year. Their manager, Lucien Favre (no relation), gave the triple middle fingers in the post-match news conference.
Sean and I were shocked by the following fact: Dortmund’s xG was 1.6 and BMG’s was 3.2. The “eye test” had revealed to us an equal number of chances. The analytics showed us the quality of those chances. In the end, the numbers did not matter. Dortmund converted when they needed to regardless of the quality of chances and kept BMG from converting anything despite having those four chances in the penalty area. Their most important three points of the season.
2nd- Borussia Monchengladbach (BMG)
I told you that this shit was NSFW. I told you. You didn’t believe me. You are probably reading this and saying to yourself that Dippy must be writing this column. That Dippy, a 27-year-old emo guy with an addiction to orange Tic Tacs, Sprite, soliciting, e-cigs, piercings, sharp objects, trains, flowers, puppies, and tattoos is the one writing this column. He works on a beach watching kids in a pirate bear costume in 102-degree heat. He must be totally jacked out of his mind to write this pile of bear shit. Because no one in their right mind would put Borussia Monchengladbach over a team that they just lost to this past weekend.
Why?
Because they can score goals. Because they create more chances to score goals. Because they do not allow opponents much time in their defensive zone. BMG is second in the league in goals scored and in xG. Their xG in the last five matches was 1.6, 4.3, 2.8, 3.6, and 3.2. BMG allowed on average 12.62 passes in their defensive zone per their defensive action against Dortmund (yes! I know they lost 1-0). This was their highest level in their last six matches. This is a measure of their defensive activity and the lower the number of passes allowed the better. Alassane Plea, Marcus Thuram, and Breel Embolo are not household names, however, they make wonderful fantasy picks as they have been solid offensive performers. Here is the catch. Their goalie, Yann Sommer, has had to stand on his head on many occasions and he has done extremely well. He has only given up seven goals all season while the clubs xGA is in the bottom half. In other words, other clubs have not been able to convert on their chances. Dortmund also had two goals called back by VAR last weekend. They also played several clumpy cat litter box teams, but they beat them (not tied them like another team I know). It is unlikely that this goalie can stand on his head forever or that VAR will bail them out in the future. They don’t give their opponents a lot of time in their zone, but they give up chances. If they continue this pace it may all catch up.
1st – Bayern Munich
Yes, the club that plays in a bloody red donut is ranked first. Yes, the club that has won the league seven years in a row is ranked first. So, yes Bayern is ranked first in this BS power ranking. They are third in the table. They have dropped four points in the league in their last two games. However, this is all a mirage. They had an xG of 3.1 against Augsburg and 1.8 against Hoffenheim. They dominated play in each of those games spending a ridiculous amount of time in the opponent’s defensive end. Hoffenheim’s PPDA was 21.47 and Augsburg’s was 33.54. Bayern had 44 shots in these matches.
Remember, this is the club that devastated Tottenham 7-2 in the CL making them bend the knee so many times that they should be starring in a porn flick. Their xGDiff (+10.8) is five goals higher than the second-best team. Their xG is second in the league (almost 3 goals more than the 3rd best club). Their xGA is second in the league. Robert Lewandowski has 12 goals in eight league matches. That is double the 2nd place player. His npxG+xA per 90 min is 0.98. Serge Gnabry and Phillip Coutinho (WTF!) both have scores on this metric of 0.79 and 0.56 respectively. They also have the “hottest manager in German football.” This is a recipe for winning a title.
However, this is far from a foregone conclusion. The Bundesliga has more quality teams than in seasons past. There are more contenders than in season’s past. There is a winter break coming in two months, multiple teams playing in Europe, and twenty-six league matches to go. There is enough sample size to draw some conclusions, but as Dortmund and Bayern proved last season, these great starts can fall apart like most of Dippy’s political conspiracy theories (did you hear the one about a house cat, videos of random car crashes and a certain political candidate that can’t comb his hair?). It’s early and worth watching.
Author: Keith Lisenbee, mental health professional, writer, and soccer enthusiast is from Atlanta, Georgia by way of Virginia. I was in love with soccer until Agüero destroyed my soul and Manchester United's title hopes in 2012. I came back for the World Cup in 2014 and through the use of DVR, I am back with the force of orange Tic Tacs and IPAs covering the EPL, Bundesliga, MLS, and La Liga. You can follow me on Twitter @keith_lisenbee and Instagram @lisenbeekeith got more random soccer thoughts.